Current:Home > MyAre convention viewing numbers a hint about who will win the election? Don’t bet on it-LoTradeCoin
Are convention viewing numbers a hint about who will win the election? Don’t bet on it
View Date:2024-12-24 22:09:58
NEW YORK (AP) — In a close election campaign with both sides looking for an edge, the party with more people watching their midsummer convention would seem to have an important sign of success.
Yet historically speaking, that measurement means next to nothing.
Eight times over the past 16 presidential election cycles dating back to 1960, the party with the most popular convention among television viewers won in November. Eight times they lost.
Through the first three nights of each convention this summer, the Democrats averaged 20.6 million viewers, the Nielsen company said. Republicans averaged 17 million in July. The estimate for Thursday night, highlighted by Vice President Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech, is due later Friday.
“It’s one of those interesting things about covering politics is that you see these indicators about what really matters, and a lot of times it doesn’t,” said veteran journalist Jeff Greenfield, who covered the Democrats this week for Politico.
Popularity contests in TV ratings don’t necessarily translate
The Democratic convention has been more popular with viewers in 12 of the last 16 elections, Nielsen said. Although Democrats have won eight of those elections, their candidate recorded the most votes in 10 of them.
The last time a party lost despite having a more popular convention was in 2016, although it was close: Democrat Hillary Clinton’s nominating session beat Donald Trump by less than a million viewers per average, Nielsen said. For all of his vaunted popularity as a television attraction, Trump fell short in the ratings twice and is on track to make it three.
A convention’s last night, with the nominee’s acceptance speech, generally gets the most viewers. Trump reached 25.4 million people with his July speech, less than a week after an assassination attempt, and the average would have undoubtedly been higher if his 92-minute address hadn’t stretched past midnight on the East Coast.
Despite Barack Obama’s historic election as the nation’s first Black president in 2008, Republican John McCain’s convention actually had more than 4 million viewers each night on average.
People probably are watching their own party’s convention
For four straight cycles, between 1976 through 1988, the party with the most-watched convention lost the election. That included the two lopsided victories by Republican Ronald Reagan — although a nomination fight between Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy in 1980 and the selection of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 as the first woman on a national ticket probably boosted the Democrats’ convention audience in those years.
Typically, people are more likely to watch their own party’s convention, Greenfield said. That’s reflected in the ratings this year: Fox News Channel, which appeals to Republicans, had by far more viewers than any other network for the GOP convention, while left-leaning MSNBC has dominated this past week.
It will also be interesting to see if star power — or potential star power — boosted Harris. Rumors of a surprise Beyoncé or Taylor Swift appearance, ultimately unfounded, hung over the Democratic session.
Both conventions are highly produced television events as much as they are political meetings, and Greenfield said it was clear the Democrats had the upper hand.
“I think if you were going strictly on entertainment value,” he said, “Oprah Winfrey and Stevie Wonder trump Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan.”
___
David Bauder writes about media for the AP. Follow him at http://twitter.com/dbauder.
veryGood! (88862)
Related
- NASCAR Championship race live updates, how to watch: Cup title on the line at Phoenix
- Alabama lawmakers aim to approve immunity laws for IVF providers
- Dartmouth men's basketball team votes to unionize, shaking up college sports
- Pregnant Ayesha Curry Shares the Lessons She’s Passing on to Her 4 Kids
- Judge moves to slash $38 million verdict in New Hampshire youth center abuse case
- After years in conflict zones, a war reporter reckons with a deadly cancer diagnosis
- Shehbaz Sharif elected Pakistan's prime minister as Imran Khan's followers allege victory was stolen
- Allegheny Wood Products didn’t give proper notice before shutting down, lawsuit says
- Rare Alo Yoga Flash Sale: Don’t Miss 60% Off Deals With Styles as Low as $5
- Stock market today: Asian shares are mixed as China unveils 5% economic growth target for 2024
Ranking
- Mike Tyson has lived a wild life. These 10 big moments have defined his career
- GM recalls nearly 820,000 Sierra, Silverado pickup trucks over tailgate safety issue
- Chick-fil-A tells customers to throw out a popular dipping sauce
- Julianne Hough Shares How She Supported Derek Hough and His Wife Hayley Erbert Amid Health Scare
- What do nails have to say about your health? Experts answer your FAQs.
- Houston still No. 1, while Marquette and Kansas tumble in USA TODAY Sports men's basketball poll
- Biden administration asks Supreme Court to block Texas from arresting migrants under SB4 law
- After a fender bender, this pup ran a mile to her doggy daycare to seek shelter
Recommendation
-
How Kim Kardashian Navigates “Uncomfortable” Situations With Her 4 Kids
-
16 and Pregnant Star Sean Garinger Dead at 20 After ATV Accident
-
MH370 vanished a decade ago and search efforts stopped several years later. A U.S. company wants to try again.
-
Biden administration asks Supreme Court to block Texas from arresting migrants under SB4 law
-
All the Ways Megan Fox Hinted at Her Pregnancy With Machine Gun Kelly
-
Wendy's is offering $1, $2 cheeseburgers for March Madness: How to get the slam dunk deal
-
EAGLEEYE COIN: Cryptocurrency Market Historical Bull Market Review
-
EAGLEEYE COIN: Prospects for the Application of Blockchain Technology in the Medical Industry